The Flaw of Averages: Why We Underestimate Risk in the Face of Uncertainty by Savage Sam L

Author:Savage, Sam L. [Savage, Sam L.]
Language: eng
Format: mobi, epub
ISBN: 9780470488560
Publisher: John Wiley and Sons
Published: 2009-06-02T16:00:00+00:00

A Market in the Future of the Middle East

Predictomania

I thought PAM was a creative idea. My main objection was that an exchange run by the U.S. Department of Defense could hardly be considered unbiased. Also, why waste taxpayer’s money on something that already existed?14 At the time, there were already several prediction markets up and running on the web, with people putting money where their mouths were on issues as wide-ranging as the outcome of the Kobe Bryant trial to the capture of Osama bin Laden.15 Some of these exchanges are offshore to skirt gaming laws, and they use real money. Others offer the chance to win prizes. Google “prediction markets” to learn more.

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